000
FXUS66 KHNX 070415
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
815 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS WELL AS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.UPDATE...NOT MUCH CHANGED TODAY AS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT ROLLED
OVER THE DISTRICT. WHILE TEMPERATURES WERE WARMER TODAY OVER MUCH
OF THE DISTRICT...GRADIENTS BECAME MORE ONSHORE WITH THE UPPER
FLOW IN A MORE ZONAL POSITION. THIS STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW FOR COOLER CONDITIONS TO FILTER INTO THE DISTRICT THIS
WEEKEND...AS TEMPERATURES MAY BEGIN TO DROP. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR SATURDAY WITH THE EXTREME REACHING 70.
THIS WILL BE A 5 DEG-F DROP WITH LITTLE CHANGE ON SUNDAY AS THE
FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE FLOW BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY WITH EVEN MORE WARMING OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THIS THINKING AS THE REGION
REMAINS DRY. THEREFORE...WILL MAKE NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2009/
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR AS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ALONG THE FIZZLING FRONT ARE MOSTLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. SO DESPITE A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR-MASS IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEY ARE GENERALLY AT OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THIS TIME YESTERDAY DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF CLOUDS
TODAY. MAY STILL SEE SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS OF KERN AND TULARE COUNTY. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME THIN
CIRRUS AT TIMES WITHIN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES
WILL HOLD NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THIS WEEKEND THEN WARM SLIGHTLY FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS SHOW A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE
PAC NW COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT ARE STRUGGLING WITH ITS TRACK FOR
MIDWEEK. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS SHOWED SOME CONSENSUS WITH
MOVING IT INLAND ACROSS NORCAL WEDNESDAY THEN OVER CENTRAL CA
THURSDAY. GFS WAS PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF A 549
DM LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WITH GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
OPTED TO RAISE POPS ALONG THE SIERRA THURSDAY TO CLIMO GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO. HOWEVER THE NEWEST RUNS HAVE DIVERGED AGAIN WITH THE 12Z
ECMWF KEEPING THE TROUGH AND ANY MOISTURE OVER NORCAL WED-THURS
AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY. 18Z GFS STILL TRACKS IT ACROSS
THE SIERRA THURSDAY BUT AS A WEAKER OPEN WAVE WITH LESS MOISTURE.
SO STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT AT LEAST SOME COOLING WILL
OCCUR MIDWEEK.

.AVIATION...LOCAL MVFR VISIBILITY IN HAZE IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...JDB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD