000
FXUS66 KMTR 071206
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
350 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 300 AM PST SATURDAY...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH CONTINUES OVER CALIFORNIA AND EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. WEAK DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO
AND MONTEREY BAY AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING CAUSING LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY REVEALING A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. COOL AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY...WILL KEEP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND SUNDAY.

OF CONCERN THIS WEEKEND IS HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AT THE
COASTLINE. LONG PERIOD WAVES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO ENCROACH ON OUR
BEACHES AND ROCKY SHORE CAUSING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. SERIES OF LARGE
WAVES OF UP TO 20 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CAN
EASILY CATCH BEACH GOERS AND WAVE WATCHERS OFF GUARD. IF YOU ARE NEAR
THE SHORE ALWAYS KEEP YOUR EYES ON THE WAVES AND PROVIDE YOURSELF
WITH AN EXTRA SAFE DISTANCE FROM THE BREAKING WAVES.

IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER THE TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK AS IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS CALIFORNIA IN CYCLONIC FLOW. TIMING
OF THESE IMPULSES WILL BE DIFFICULT AND THE MODELS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT ON THE DETAILS. AS BEST AS CAN BE DETERMINED...THE NEXT
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN INTO
WEDNESDAY....PAVING THE WAY FOR ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES. ANY SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS THAT FOLLOW WILL MOST LIKELY BE STRONGER AND HAVE MORE
MOISTURE. SO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK.

.AVIATION...AS OF 350 AM PST SATURDAY...SOME DRYING NOTED IN THE
BAY AREA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN. A FEW
PATCHES OF FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. OVER THE CENTRAL COAST THE AIRMASS
IS MORE HUMID BUT DRYING IS EXPECTED HERE DURING THE MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z BUT
IN GENERAL THE CEILING SHOULD CLIMB TO MVFR AS THE LOW LEVELS COOL
AND DRY SOMEWHAT. VFR AFTER 19Z WITH NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS BUT IN GENERAL CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE BY MID-LATE MORNING. VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. CLEARING EXPECTED AT KMRY AND KSNS WITH VFR FORECAST FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

.MARINE...AS OF 350 AM PST SATURDAY...LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL OBSERVED
FROM POINT ARENA TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS EARLY THIS MORNING PER
COASTAL BUOYS. A FEW READINGS ARE AT OR ABOVE 20 FEET WITH SWELL
PERIODS NEAR 20 SECONDS. LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL TRAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. WILL UPDATE HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO INCLUDE
NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    .TDA...SCA FOR WINDS AND SEAS...PT. ARENA TO PT. PIEDRAS
           BLANCAS
        ...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...MRY BAY
        ...ROUGH BAR FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAR
    .THRU SUN AFTERNOON...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...SONOMA COAST SOUTH
           THROUGH THE MONTEREY COUNTY COAST.

PUBLIC FORECAST EVANS
AVIATION/MARINE CANEPA

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO