000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070758
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
258 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF
THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. ALOFT...UPR LEVEL RIDGING WAS NOTED OVER THE
LWR MS VALLEY THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WAS CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOME ASSOCIATED HIGH LEVEL
AC/CI DRIFTING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS
MORNING.

HIGH CLOUDS TO THE WEST WL THIN OUT A BIT AS THEY BEGIN TO DRIFT
INTO OUR PIEDMONT COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND HAVE
INCREASED SKY COVER SLIGHTLY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL VA/MD
ZONES...ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH SCT AC/CI AROUND...SHOULD
STILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY TDA. AFTER A CHILLY START TO
THE DAY...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY ON STRONG RETURN SSW
FLOW. TOUGH TO MIX H85 TEMPS DOWN THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO USED H92
TEMPS FOR T GRIDS TODAY. EARLY AFTERNOON H92 TEMPS AROUND 10 TO
11C OVER THE WEST...8 TO 9C OVER THE EAST WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO MID 60S OVER ALONG/WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE U50S TO LOW 60S OVER
THE REST OF THE AREA.

SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WITH MORE TYPICAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR UPR 30S TO LOW 40S FOR TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY...
ANOTHER VERY NICE WX DAY ON SUNDAY...AS THE UPR RIDGE DEEPENS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 60S
ALONG THE COAST TO THE LWR 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. CLEAR
AND SEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE U30S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/INTERIOR EASTERN SHORE...TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY...
ANOTHER GENERALLY BENIGN...PLEASANT WX DAY IN STORE FOR THE RGN
ON MONDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BUT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WX ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST INLAND ZONES...UPPER 60S/NR70
ALONG THE COAST UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO ARISE IN THE MODELS DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE GFS HASNT HAD THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF
LATE...AND AT 12Z DEPARTED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE 06Z RUN/ENSEMBLE
MEAN. BY NEXT TUE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEVELOPING LOW
IN THE GULF SRN STREAM WAVE...HOWEVER OVER TIME THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW GRADUALLY MIGRATING LOW OFF THE
FL/GA COAST...WHILE THE ECMWF IS FARTHER S WITH THE DEEP-LAYER
RIDGING AND THUS THE LOW TRACK. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
MORE CONSISTENT ECWMF...THOUGH WILL TREND WITH A LITTLE MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER SRN PTNS OF THE FCST AREA TUE-FRI. OTHERWISE...FOLLOWING
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES WITH THE FRONT TUE/TUE NGT...HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP A DRY FCST GOING WED-FRI. TEMPS SEASONABLE...AROUND 5-10F ABV
NORMAL TUE MID 60S TO LWR 70S...THOUGH CLOSER TO CLIMO WED-FRI
LOW-MID 60S.

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD AS HI PRES REMAINS OVER THE MID
ATLNC RGN. A WEAK UPR LVL SHORT WV WL BRING A FEW HIGH PASSING
CLDS BY EARLY AFTN MON...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK
COLD FNT MVS ACRS THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVNG BRINGING A SLGT CHC OF
PCPN WITH IT. HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE W WED.

.MARINE...
FOR THE MOST PART...MARINE WEATHER WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL NEXT FEW
DAYS. EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...WHEN SLY WINDS ON THE BAY WILL COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA.
WHILE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES MARGINAL SCA WILL BE
NEEDED...WILL KEEP WINDS JUST BELOW SCA FOR NOW...AND DAY SHIFT CAN
MAKE FINAL DETERMINATION. WINDS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
CRITERIA...BUT WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT OR SO FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WINDS DROP OFF ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY LOOKING VERY NICE FOR MARINERS. NEXT FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY/WED...WITH A NLY/NWLY SURGE LIKELY BEHIND
FNT. THAT WILL BE THE NEXT SOLID CHANCE FOR SCAS MARINE AREA WIDE.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021025.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012016-
     030032.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ017.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ070094-096-
     097-099.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ095-098-100.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...BKH
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...WRS